Impact of older age adiposity on incident diabetes: a community-based cohort study in China

Background: Obesity classifications vary globally and the impact of older age adiposity on incident diabetes has not been well-studied.

Methods: We examined a random sample of 2,809 participants aged ≥60 years in China, who were free of diabetes at baseline and were followed up for up to 10 years to document diabetes (n=178). The incidence of diabetes was assessed in relation to different cut-off points of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) in multiple adjusted Cox regression models.

Results: The diabetic risk in the cohort increased linearly with the continuous and quartile variables of BMI and WC. The BMI-World Health Organization (WHO) and BMI-China criteria analysis did not show such a linear relationship, however, the BMI-Asian/Hong Kong criteria did; adjusted hazards ratio (HR) was 0.42 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20 to 0.90) in BMI <20 kg/m2, 1.46 (95% CI, 0.99 to 2.14) in 23-≤26 kg/m2, and 1.63 (95% CI, 1.09 to 2.45) in ≥26 kg/m2. The WC-China criteria revealed a slightly better prediction of diabetes (adjusted HRs were 1.79 [95% CI, 1.21 to 2.66] and 1.87 [95% CI, 1.22 to 2.88] in central obese action levels 1 and 2) than the WC-WHO. The combination of the BMI-Asian/Hong Kong with WC-China demonstrated the strongest prediction. There were no gender differences in the impact of adiposity on diabetes.

Conclusion: In older Chinese, BMI-Asian/Hong Kong criteria is a better predictor of diabetes than other BMI criterion. Its combination with WC-China improved the prediction of adiposity to diabetes, which would help manage bodyweight in older age to reduce the risk of diabetes.